Revenue, Age, and Market Contracts: Analyzing Kyle Seager's Future with the Mariners

Trade speculation is perennial for any high-profile player near the end of his contract season. As the Seattle Mariners prepare for the 2021 season, many fans and analysts are pondering the possibility of Kyle Seager being traded. However, several factors make this highly unlikely, primarily due to the market dynamics, Seager's performance, and the team's financial situation.

Unlikely Trade Scenarios

The idea of trading Kyle Seager is sometimes suggested, but it remains extremely unlikely. One of the key reasons is the current market's availability of younger options at a similar price with no future contract commitment. Seager’s contract is worth $18 million for the 2021 season, and it includes a $15 million player option for 2022. Most teams are looking for flexible players who can commit to the organization long term.

Moreover, Kyle's age (he turns 34 in November) and the Mariners' financial constraints add to the improbability of a trade. The team has faced lack of revenue and tight budget over the years, making it difficult for them to take on additional expenditure for a player nearing retirement age.

Evaluating Seager's Performance

Despite the speculation, Kyle Seager remains a valuable player for the Mariners. He projects as at least a two-win player, which is worth at least the $18 million he earns this year. His production has been consistent, with a contact rate that remains above average, and an above-average exit velocity. His experience and steadiness, especially at the hot corner, make him a reliable and important asset.

A team in need of a third baseman at the trade deadline could indeed see value in acquiring Seager. However, given the presence of other free agents like Kris Bryant, and the possibility of finding more affordable options, it is even less likely that a team would take on the risk of trading for Seager.

Historical Context and Performance Analysis

The best way to understand Seager's value is by looking at his performance over the years. Since the Mariners and Seager signed a seven-year, $100 million contract in 2015, Seager has had a remarkable career. Through 2020, he has been a 18.5 fWAR player. Fangraphs estimates the value of his 18.5 fWAR at $147.6 million, meaning the Mariners have already received $47.6 million in excess value from Seager's contract before paying him for the 2021 season.

Moreover, comparing Seager to other top third basemen who have signed lucrative deals in the same period:

Josh Donaldson: Missed over a year and earned more money than Seager. Matt Carpenter: Has a poor record as a defender and lower fWAR if he played at third base only.

These comparisons highlight Seager's consistent and valuable contribution to the team. Rather than being overpaid, Seager has provided significant value well beyond the contract's terms.

The consistent performance of the Mariners as a team is also not solely the fault of Kyle Seager. The team's overall structure, strategies, and the current market have provided significant challenges, making it inappropriate to solely blame Seager for the team's lack of success.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while trade speculation for Kyle Seager is a common discussion, the likelihood of such a trade is extremely low. Seager's contract, his production, and the team's financial situation all make such a move undesirable for the Mariners. The value and consistency of Seager's contribution to the team, as well as the historical context, underscore that he is far from being overpaid.