The Debate Over Brexit Rejoining: An Ongoing Reality
As the world reflects on the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, the likelihood of a new voting opportunity to rejoin the European Union (EU) remains a subject of much debate and speculation. With a new decade in the 2020s marking a significant passage of time since the departure in 2017, the question of rejoining now seems more pertinent than ever. However, with the legal and political complexities involved, it appears that any referendum on rejoining the EU would indeed be “Bre-entry.”
Current Status and Future Possibilities
Since the UK's departure from the EU in January 2020, the country has firmly established itself as an independent nation. Any new referendum on rejoining the EU would need to be framed differently from the 2016 vote, as the choice was between remaining or leaving the EU. Now, in 2024, the context has changed significantly. The UK cannot “remain” in the EU as it is no longer a member, and the proposed choices for such a referendum would likely be to rejoin the EU or remain independent.
Euro-sceptics and hard Brexiteers may view rejoining the EU as an irrational choice, given that it would be a return to a situation they believed was detrimental. Yet, the UK's experience with Brexit has shown that re-entry would present both opportunities and challenges. While the UK has navigated the complexities of Exiting the EU, re-entry would also require addressing its long-standing issues with the EU's stringent integrated systems and political alignment.
Legal and Political Realities
Legally, the UK formally left the EU on January 31, 2020, and no mechanism for rejoining exists under current EU treaties. Any future attempt to rejoin would require significant negotiation, including changes to EU treaties and a period of integration that could take years. Political parties in the UK have varying degrees of support for rejoining the EU, with no current major party including re-entry in their manifestos.
Many have raised concerns about whether there is an immediate political incentive to push for such a referendum. Given the current political landscape, the prospect of a rejoining referendum is at least six to ten years away. The government created by the upcoming General Election will likely have no mandate to hold such a referendum, further extending the timeline.
Perceptions and Public Sentiment
Public sentiment plays a critical role in any referendum. While some argue that rejoining the EU makes sense given a changing international landscape, others remain deeply opposed to the idea. The EU's relationship with the UK has shifted, and the UK's recent experiences with Brexit have deepened national divisions. The UK's departure also strained its relationships with other EU countries, making a smooth re-entry less likely.
The UK government has emphasized the positive outcomes of leaving the EU, including economic growth and autonomy. These claims, however, have not completely erased the narrative of economic and political challenges faced during the transition period. Therefore, rejoining the EU would face significant public and political resistance.
Conclusion
The debate over Brexit rejoining is an ongoing reality, marked by legal, political, and public sentiment complexities. While the UK remains outside the EU, the prospect of rejoining remains uncertain, with the nearest possibility still many years away. The UK's experience with Brexit has left a lasting impact, and the current political climate suggests that the likelihood of a rejoining referendum is low in the short term.